Market Fear is Rising as Price Falls

Last week, the market fell, leaving the S&P 3% off the all time high it set the 2 weeks ago. There was a lot for investors to digest--Russian takeover of Crimea and the Sunday's referendum to annex the region into Russia, economic weakness in China, a lost Boeing 777 that reminds us of the possibility of terrorism, as well as earnings reports and some domestic economic numbers. Add to that this weeks 2-day meeting of the Fed, and there are reasons why investors may be taking profits off the table.

Last weeks pullback in the market also shifted the Market Direction Category to (2), bullish under selling pressure. The Dow was the biggest loser, down -2.35% and closing below its 50 EMA. The Nasdaq fell -2.09%, and the S&P declined -1.97%, but both are still above their respective 50 EMAs. However, both the Nasdaq and S&P have fallen below the breakout highs of February.

The market is oversold on a short-term basis, but there could still be more downside. The market closed weak on Friday and did not establish a support area to stage a rebound. That could happen in the morning session on Monday, but for now, the bias is to the downside short-term. The VIX made a new 3-week high on Friday, suggesting that investor fear is on the rise.