Bears Still in Control

On Thursday, the market opened up and advanced for the day, erasing more than half of the losses from Monday. The Nasdaq gained +45 points (+1.14%), the S&P rose +21 points (+1.24%), and the Dow increased by +188 points (+1.22%). Volume was lighter than Wednesday, so it will take a stronger surge for the market into reverse the correction.

Advancers won the day with a 3 to 1 advantage over decliners. Up volume had a 4 to 1 edge over down volume. Today's market action completed a pivot low for the Nasdaq and S&P, but given that price is still below Monday's high, the pivot is not a strong. The S&P closed well below its 50 EMA, while the Nasdaq nearly reached its 50 EMA. RSI 20 (TradeStation) still remains weak at 44, and it was unable to make a new high on today's up move.

Despite the "appearance" of a strong up day, volume is still lacking to the upside. Up days in a correction must establish higher volume levels to show a change of conviction for institutional investors. For now, we remain in bear mode. The current market action suggests that the downside volume has not yet been stopped by upside volume. The risk is still high for the market to test lower in a deepening correction.