Weekly S&P is Oversold
Weekly S&P is Oversold

NASDAQ is in a Bear Market

Charles Schaap - May 15, 2022

Is it time to buy the dip?

The Nasdaq is in a bear market (-28%), and the S&P in a deep correction (-16%). The Nasdaq's bigger tumble makes sense since riskier tech stocks usually get sold off first when the market corrects.

Right now, we have a better chance than we've had over the last several weeks to rebound with an initial S&P target area of 4250. The weekly S&P is very oversold with a 4-RSI of "0." The 20-RSI has been in a steady decline since November 2021, so the bias is still down, so any bounce is likely to be short term.

Even if the current lows of the market indexes hold, there is still downward pressure on the market, and continued volatility is expected.

We have not seen capitulation yet (climax decline), so remain cautious in your optimism (if you have any, ha, ha).

The economy appears headed for a recession. Hiking interest rates should inhibit economic expansion. Commodity prices (oil, wheat, etc.) are rising; we may see a global recession.

In general, stock setups are sparse. There are few industries making gains (energy, consumer staples, healthcare), but the vast majority are still in correction mode.

For the next index support levels, a decline to 30,000 on the Dow would be technically reasonable. The S&P could fall to 3600 and the NASDAQ to 11,000 (almost there).

Now is the time to make sure you watchlist refreshed and up to date. The market will turn up before your market optimism does, and you'll want to be ready to take advantage of valid buying opportunities.